The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat are back again to do battle in the 2011 NBA Finals, a rematch of the 2006 finals with of course a few new names joining each squad. The only members that remain the same are Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki on the Mavs, and Dwayne Wade and Udonis Haslem on the Heat. This was the biggest question for the Heat, before the season whether or not the Big 3 of Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh would coexist and most importantly make it to the finals. Well both of those questions are answered with a resounding yes. On the other side the Mavericks are having one of the most improbable playoff runs, while many people including yours truly thought they would lose to the Trail Blazers in the 1st round and also in the 2nd round to the Lakers. The Mavs have continued to exceed expectations and will look to continue to build on their playoff run and retaliate after their '06 loss to Miami.
Keys for the Mavericks to win the series
Dirk Nowtizki. One word, one player. The Mavs offense runs exclusively through the 7 foot German, and so far no opponent has been able to stop Dirk. Dirk during this playoff run is putting up absurd numbers. In just 15 games, Dirk is averaging 28.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and shooting 52% from the 3 pt line and the field and a ridiculous 93% from the free throw line, having only missed 10 free throws this entire playoff run. Dirk hasn't been able to be stopped no matter who has defended him, causing Lebron to say "Dirk has the 2nd most unstoppable move, with his 1 foot fadeaway after Kareem's skyhook." And I don't expect Dirk to be stopped no matter who they put on him. Most likely Bosh will be on Dirk the most amount of time, but if they don't want Bosh to be in foul trouble Miami should put Joel Anthony on Dirk. Lebron and even Wade will see defensive assignments against Dirk throughout the series in crunch time. The Dallas bench has been one of the biggest keys throughout the playoff run for Dallas, and will continue to be against Miami. With Dirk likely receiving double and even sometimes triple teams, the Dallas shooters should be ready and will be counted on to take some of the load off of Dirk. JJ Barea will be a matchup problem for Mario Chalmers and Mike Bibby, and he has proven this playoff run to be an effective scorer off the bench, who can score in bunches and isn't afraid to take it to the rim. Peja Stojakovic and Jason Terry will be the main shooters who will see many of the looks during the series when on the floor, and when Dirk will get those double teams. Peja has returned to his old Sacramento form and in my opinion was one of the most underrated pickups by any team this year, and is shooting 40% from the 3PT, while Jason Terry, is shooting 46%. Another big key for the Mavs will be their defense which has been very good during this time, and a very underrated defense. The Mavs run more zone defense than other teams, which has been effective. The biggest acquisition for the Mavs this year was Tyson Chandler who will have the task of rebounding and shutting down Chris Bosh. However, the biggest key for the Mavs is how to stop 2 of the top 5 players in the NBA today in James and Wade. The Mavs in the previous regular season matchups against the Heat used the zone and man to man matchups against Wade, usually having Shawn Marion on Lebron, and DeShawn Stevenson on Wade. The Mavs hope that they can duplicate the regular season matchups by causing Wade and Lebron to take deep jump shots, and causing one shot possessions for the Heat.
Keys for the Heat to win the series
The keys for the Heat, every series as of course been the Big 3, as none of them have disappointed during this playoff run. Lebron has been the biggest reason why the Heat are in the finals, constantly hitting big shots against New York, Boston and Chicago, while averaging 26 ppg, 8.8 rpg and shooting 46% from the field and 38% from the 3 pt line. Lebron should look to drive like always and should exploit many matchups that the Mavs throw at him. Wade of course it seems to do his usual acrobatic move every game and has averaged 24 ppg during the run. I believe that both Wade and Lebron will get their shots and should be able to exploit their matchups. The biggest key is for Chris Bosh to build on his Chicago series and give the Heat yet another option. Bosh has averaged 19 ppg during the playoffs but averaged 23 against the Bulls, having some big games especially in Game 3 with 34 points and in the clinching Game 5 with a double double of 24 points and 10 rebounds. What I would like to be more and more used is the pick and roll game with any 2 of these 3 superstars. This I believe would cause switches and of course more favorable matchups for the Heat. The Heat by no means have the bench of the Mavericks, and haven't seemed to find a rotation that has suited their needs during the run. The Heat need to try to counter with their own sharpshooters in Eddie House, and James Jones, who will likely be seeing more minutes. If the Heat are able to drive with Wade and Lebron, trust needs to be placed into Jones and House, when open shots occur. However, it seems that both might be a bit rusty as House only played in one game for the Heat in 2 minutes, and Jones only played one game for the Heat in 25 minutes. Mike Miller still hasn't lived up to expectations of what the Heat had hoped for, and was expected to cause the Big 3 to become the Big 4. However, injuries to both thumbs have limited Mike Miller and the Heat need to have a duplication of Game 4 against the Bulls where Miller only scored only 12 points but 40% from the 3pt line. Who knows maybe Dorrell Wright or Michael Beasley might have been a better option for the Heat instead of Miller? The Heat defense should at times have problems, against the Mavs especially at PG and PF, but their athleticism will be used especially with the Heat having one of the best one on one defenders in Lebron and a solid second in Wade. Hopefully the Heat can figure out their center situation as well. Though Joel Anthony is a good defensive option, I believe when the Heat have stretches of scoring, Big Z will be utilized to space the floor for the Heat.
With this being a 2006 rematch, it's hard not to look back and think that maybe the Mavs should have won after blowing their 2-0 series lead. I believe that this is the absolutely final chance for the Mavs, and will provide some interesting storylines, with Big 3 vs Dirk, Dirk/Kidd vs Lebron for the quest for their 1st ring and even on a smaller note former teammates in Bibby and Peja facing each other. I believe that the Mavs will look to build on their strong leadership and bench, while the Heat will hope Lebron, Wade and Bosh don't get shut down. With our 2 other correspondents being big Heat fan, I can't help going in the opposite direction knowing this is the Mavs last chance, and with the Heat looking like they will dominate for the next 5 years.
Prediction: Mavs in 7 games
Game 1: Dallas @ Miami, 9:00 PM EST ABC
More coverage of the Finals hopefully will be mentioned in upcoming posts, as well as the crowning of the new NBA champion, and later on a look at what seems to be a very weak 2011 NBA Draft Class in the next month.
Seize the Day People.
